My Largely Hypothetical 3rd Generation iPhone Predictions Which Are Not Based on Any Insider Information
I believe this image is pretty accurate, and that well see all of the ‘green’ features’ added to the third generation iPhone shipping this summer (video camera with editing software, improved higher-resolution still camera, etc). Taken the green items as a given, here are my thoughts on some of the others.
PURPLE
Upload to YouTube - YES
Might be added in an update later if it requires Google to implement something server-side.
Wi-Fi Movie / TV downloads - YES
Hulu’s ad-supported model has limited the willingness of consumers to pay a premium for TV show downloads to the desktop. Apple would be smart to focus on extracting that value in the mobile arena, where they have more control (and no Flash-based Hulu to compete with). I have a few ideas about Apple’s strategy for this (and why it’s taken so long) which I’ll post separately.
Background App Support - NO, KIND OF
Allowing this would encourage developers to write apps with features that need to run in the background and break on older iPhones. Lots of reading fine print in the app store. Lots of iPhones seeming slower than they should. Lots of confused customers being mad at Apple. Palm is allowing this with the Pre, and I think it’s a mistake given the present hardware.
However, Apple may choose to work directly (and privately) with “top tier” developers and sanction particular apps to run in the background (just as their own do), but at that point the distinction between an Apple app and a 3rd-party app becomes blurry.
Either way, it’s not something Apple will publicly acknowledge or discuss, and it won’t happen out of the gate if it happens at all. Apple is trying to encourage developers to embrace the push notification APIs, not bombard them with applications for membership in the exclusive “runs in the background” club.
ORANGE
Flash - HELL NO
Flash is the last thing anyone needs on the iPhone. Flash is a competing runtime environment - essentially an OS within the OS. Why would Apple need or want to attract developers that will only to push .swf files with lowest-common denominator UIs out into the world? Flash It would compete directly with Cocoa Touch. It’s slower, it’s not optimized for the hardware, it kills battery life, but most importantly it would unravel everything Apple has done to create the most successful mobile platform to date, rather than just a phone that plays music. It will absolutely not happen.
FM Transmitter- NO
Adding an FM radio would be easy. The technology is tiny, cheap, and probably uses a lot less power than streaming audio over 3G. Would people use it? Sure. Will Apple do it? No. Because in 2009 an FM radio just seems lame — like something you’d find in a Zune.
OLED screen - MAYBE
Does it matter? Does it not already have one? Will anyone notice?
802.11n Wi-Fi - YES
Apple has been selling 802.11n Airport Extremes and Expresses at a premium and the lack of n on the iPhone and iPod Touch is becoming a collective annoyance. This one is partially wishful thinking on my part. If it’s not feasible for this generation, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it added as a mid-lifespan bump closer to the holidays. One caveat: Apple recently added a feature to the new Airport Extreme that allows it to create both an n network and a b/g network simultaneously. If that’s Apple’s workaround then it doesn’t bode well for n support in the iPhone / iPod Touch.
June 08, 2009, 10:30am Comments and Permalink
